Black Swans

Black Swans

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"Babitz’s talent for the brilliant line, honed to a point, never interferes with her feel for languid pleasures." —The New York Times Book Review A new reissue of Babitz’s collection of nine stories that look back on the 1980s and early 1990s—decades of dreams, drink, and glimpses of a changing world. Black Swans further celebrates the phenomenon of Eve Babitz, cementing her reputation as the voice of a generation. With an introduction by Stephanie Danler, bestselling author of Sweetbitter. "On the page, Babitz is pure pleasure—a perpetual–motion machine of no–stakes elation and champagne fizz." —The New Yorker

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Genre : Fiction
Author by : Eve Babitz
Publisher : Catapult
Release : 2018-04-01
File : 256 Pages
ISBN : 9781640090514


The Black Swan

The Black Swan

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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

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Genre : Business & Economics
Author by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher : Random House
Release : 2007-04-17
File : 480 Pages
ISBN : 9781588365835


Three Black Swans

Three Black Swans

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When sixteen-year-old Missy Vianello decides to try to convince her classmates that her cousin Claire is really her long-lost identical twin, she has no idea that the results of her prank will be so life-changing.

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Genre : Juvenile Fiction
Author by : Caroline B. Cooney
Publisher : Random House Digital, Inc.
Release : 2012
File : 276 Pages
ISBN : 9780385738682


The Black Swan

The Black Swan

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After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.

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Genre : Fiction
Author by : Mercedes Lackey
Publisher : Penguin
Release : 2000-05-01
File : 416 Pages
ISBN : 9781101119068


Black Swan Green

Black Swan Green

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By the New York Times bestselling author of The Bone Clocks and Cloud Atlas | Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize Selected by Time as One of the Ten Best Books of the Year | A New York Times Notable Book | Named One of the Best Books of the Year by The Washington Post Book World, The Christian Science Monitor, Rocky Mountain News, and Kirkus Reviews | A Los Angeles Times Book Prize Finalist | Winner of the ALA Alex Award | Finalist for the Costa Novel Award From award-winning writer David Mitchell comes a sinewy, meditative novel of boyhood on the cusp of adulthood and the old on the cusp of the new. Black Swan Green tracks a single year in what is, for thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor, the sleepiest village in muddiest Worcestershire in a dying Cold War England, 1982. But the thirteen chapters, each a short story in its own right, create an exquisitely observed world that is anything but sleepy. A world of Kissingeresque realpolitik enacted in boys’ games on a frozen lake; of “nightcreeping” through the summer backyards of strangers; of the tabloid-fueled thrills of the Falklands War and its human toll; of the cruel, luscious Dawn Madden and her power-hungry boyfriend, Ross Wilcox; of a certain Madame Eva van Outryve de Crommelynck, an elderly bohemian emigré who is both more and less than she appears; of Jason’s search to replace his dead grandfather’s irreplaceable smashed watch before the crime is discovered; of first cigarettes, first kisses, first Duran Duran LPs, and first deaths; of Margaret Thatcher’s recession; of Gypsies camping in the woods and the hysteria they inspire; and, even closer to home, of a slow-motion divorce in four seasons. Pointed, funny, profound, left-field, elegiac, and painted with the stuff of life, Black Swan Green is David Mitchell’s subtlest and most effective achievement to date. Praise for Black Swan Green “[David Mitchell has created] one of the most endearing, smart, and funny young narrators ever to rise up from the pages of a novel. . . . The always fresh and brilliant writing will carry readers back to their own childhoods. . . . This enchanting novel makes us remember exactly what it was like.”—The Boston Globe “[David Mitchell is a] prodigiously daring and imaginative young writer. . . . As in the works of Thomas Pynchon and Herman Melville, one feels the roof of the narrative lifted off and oneself in thrall.”—Time

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Genre : Fiction
Author by : David Mitchell
Publisher : Random House
Release : 2006-04-11
File : 304 Pages
ISBN : 9781588365286


The Black Swan Of Paris

The Black Swan Of Paris

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An exquisite WWII novel illuminating the strength of three women in occupied Paris, for fans of The Nightingale, The Alice Network and The Lost Girls of Paris. "A truly outstanding novel...reminds us of the power of love, hope and courage."—Heather Morris, #1 bestselling author of The Tattooist of Auschwitz Paris, 1944 Celebrated singer Genevieve Dumont is both a star and a smokescreen. An unwilling darling of the Nazis, the chanteuse’s position of privilege allows her to go undetected as an ally to the resistance. When her estranged mother, Lillian de Rocheford, is captured by Nazis, Genevieve knows it won’t be long before the Gestapo succeeds in torturing information out of Lillian that will derail the upcoming allied invasion. The resistance movement is tasked with silencing her by any means necessary—including assassination. But Genevieve refuses to let her mother become yet one more victim of the war. Reuniting with her long-lost sister, she must find a way to navigate the perilous cross-currents of Occupied France undetected—and in time to save Lillian’s life. In this heart-wrenching novel, bestselling author Karen Robards showcases the extraordinary lengths one goes to save their family from a German prison. A web of spies, the resistance and a vivid portrayal of Paris in wartime.

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Genre : Fiction
Author by : Karen Robards
Publisher : MIRA
Release : 2020-06-30
File : 400 Pages
ISBN : 9781488055331


Risk Surprises And Black Swans

Risk Surprises And Black Swans

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Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

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Genre : Business & Economics
Author by : Terje Aven
Publisher : Routledge
Release : 2014-08-13
File : 276 Pages
ISBN : 9781317626329


Black Swans And Other Stories

Black Swans And Other Stories

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The stories gathered in this volume display a literary imagination of high order wedded to a probing mind that should command our attention. A Sri Lankan-born black Australian visits Amsterdam only to be confronted by the ambivalence and complexities of his identity; a Sri Lankan family arrives in Perth, their new home, a newly arrived immigrant father, through the experiences of his daughter, faces up to the realities of racism; a husband is caught between the power of nostalgia and the material comforts of the present; a father and son go out looking for ice-cream as they encounter the inescapable ramifications of multiculturalism in Australia. It is through situations such as these that Sunil Govinnage has sought to focus attention and the desire to map the variable meanings of home and exile.

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Genre : Fiction
Author by : Sunil Govinnage
Publisher : iUniverse
Release : 2002
File : 168 Pages
ISBN : 9780595238040


Black Gold Black Swans The Importance Of The Unexpected For The Future Of Energy

Black Gold Black Swans The Importance Of The Unexpected For The Future Of Energy

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The present study is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the ‘Black Swan’. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a widely cited point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevant events that constitutes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, ‘Black Swans’. Consequently, the study focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver based models. These models try to predict future price and value chain developments, ultimately searching for a strategic direction. This study questions this approach by showing that time and again similar predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. Based on the findings of this historical analysis, the study raises the question, whether it is possible to draw any practical conclusions for the future, discussing methods, which could provide protection from ‘Black Swan’ events.

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Genre : Literary Collections
Author by : Ullrich Müller
Publisher : Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
Release : 2013-12-17
File : 62 Pages
ISBN : 9783954895854


Big Bets Black Swans

Big Bets Black Swans

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President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challenges ?the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order. This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories: ? Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. ? Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on. ? Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences. ? Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare. ? Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year. Contents:Big Bets ? Reassert U.S. Leadership of a Liberal Global Order by Robert Kagan and Ted Piccone ? Secure the Future of the Internet by Peter W. Singer and Ian Wallace ? Solidify the U.S.-Afghanistan Alliance by Michael E. O'Hanlon and Gen. John Allen (USMC, Ret.) ? Lift the Ban on U.S. Oil Exports by Tim Boersma and Charles K. Ebinger ? Strengthen Stability in Africa by Michael E. O'Hanlon Double Downs ? Broaden the Approach to Iran by Suzanne Maloney ? Pursue Regime Change in Syria by Michael Doran ? Return to the Asia Rebalance by Jonathan D. Pollack and Jeffrey A. Bader ? Reach Out to Cuba by Ted Piccone ? Avert Conflict in the South and East China Seas by Richard C. Bush III, Bruce Jones and Jonathan D. Pollack Black Swans ? Israeli-Palestinian Violence Erupts by Natan B. Sachs ? Putin's Russia Goes rogue by Fiona Hill and Steven Pifer ? Venezuela Breaks Down in Violence by Harold Trinkunas Nightmares ? Korean Crisis Prompts Confrontation with China by Jonathan D. Pollack and Richard C. Bush III ? Iran Nuclear Talks Fail by Robert Einhorn and Kenneth Pollack ? Afghanistan's Presidential Election Goes Awry by Vanda Felbab-Brown ? Muslim Brotherhood Radicalizes by Daniel L. Byman and Tamara Cofman Wittes Holds ? Avoid a U.S.-Saudi Divorce by Bruce Riedel ? Close the Deal on Free Trade by Mireya Solis ? Manage the Impact of Climate Change by Elizabeth Ferris ? Deepen Economic Ties to Turkey by Kemal Kirisci ? Beyond New START by Steven Pifer

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Genre : Political Science
Author by : Ted Piccone
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
Release : 2014
File : 87 Pages
ISBN : 9780815726036